MIDEAST PEACE REMAINS ELUSIVE

ANALYSIS: Mideast peace remains elusive By STEVEN GUTKIN,
Associated Press Writer Sat Nov 4, 4:35 AM ET

JERUSALEM - Negotiators are reporting progress on efforts to form a more moderate Palestinian government and swap prisoners in Israeli custody for a captured Israeli soldier two issues that could help reverse an alarming deterioration in Israeli-Palestinian relations. But this week's violence in the Gaza town of Beit Hanoun, which included Israeli forces opening fire Friday on women serving as human shields for militants holed up at a mosque, highlighted the challenge for anyone interested in peace.Both U.S. and Israeli officials have made clear that they see no possibility for peace overtures unless the Palestinians' ruling Hamas movement accepts the three conditions put forth by the so-called quartet of international Mideast negotiators recognizing Israel, accepting past peace accords and renouncing violence.

After weeks of up-and-down negotiations, both Hamas and the rival Fatah Party of President Mahmoud Abbas say they are close to a deal to form a national unity government that many Palestinians hope could help end a crippling international aid boycott.The agreement would be based on a document put together by prominent Palestinians jailed in Israel calling for a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza. It's doubtful, however, that the so-called prisoners' document will be enough to satisfy demands that Hamas recognize Israel the main sticking point in the West's refusal to lift its boycott.The document has vague references to respecting past peace accords and accepting a Palestinian state only in the lands captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast War.

But there's no explicit recognition of the Jewish state.The Palestinians are also hoping a prisoner swap with Israel could help reduce tensions and get aid flowing again. The IMF reported this week that the Palestinian Authority's income fell by 60 percent since Hamas took power in March.

A senior Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not an official spokesman, said we are closer than we were two or three weeks ago to swapping prisoners for Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the young soldier captured by Hamas-linked militants on June 25.Israeli officials refused to give details about the negotiations, conducted through Egyptian mediators to avoid direct contact between Israel and Hamas, which Israel brands a terrorist organization. However, a senior Fatah official with knowledge of the contacts said Israel had softened its previous position refusing to discuss the criteria for which prisoners would be freed in exchange
for Shalit.Moussa Abu Marzouk, the Syria-based deputy to Hamas political chief Khaled Mashaal, complained that Israel was dragging its feet on the deal, but nevertheless predicted there will be a prisoner swap.Abu Marzouk told The Associated Press by phone in Damascus that talks held in Cairo this week between a Hamas delegation and Egypt's chief of intelligence, Omar Suleiman, about the captured Israeli and the formation of a unity government were good. He did not elaborate.

An official close to the talks, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the contacts, said Hamas doesn't trust Israel to live up to its part of the deal, and wants Shalit handed over to a third party until Israel fulfills its part of the exchange.The senior Israeli official confirmed back-channel contacts between Hamas representatives and members of Israeli civil
society with close links to their government. He offered no details, but Palestinians with knowledge of the talks said Hamas reiterated its offer of a 10-year cease-fire, or hudna, during which Israel and the Palestinians could seek a more permanent settlement.Ahmed Yousef, political adviser to Prime Minister Haniyeh, has begun a media offensive to tout the hudna idea Hamas's only diplomatic card.

I hope that one day America will find time to read a hudna as a concept,Yousef told the AP in a recent interview in Gaza. This concept could be at least a process to build confidence, and it might be a long strategy for peace.The U.S., whose involvement is seen as necessary to any hope of reviving a Mideast peace process, has been concentrating on opening Gaza's border crossings and bolstering the firepower of President Abbas as a counterweight to Hamas.

Progress toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict could go a long way toward repairing America's badly damaged credibility in the Arab and Muslim world and help bolster President Bush's legacy, especially if he becomes a lame duck after next week's congressional elections in which the Democrats are expected to fare well.But the U.S. administration has done little to get Israelis and Palestinians to talk peace, and U.S. officials privately concede they
have no intention of asserting any pressure as long as an unreformed Hamas is in power. Israel, for its part, has been concentrating its efforts on winning the release of Shalit and two other Israeli soldiers whose July 12 capture by Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon set off a 34-day war this summer. The government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has indefinitely shelved the top policy initiative for which it was elected a pullback from the West Bank. Unless we see the emergence of a more stable political situation in the Palestinian territories, a Palestinian government that wants to cooperate with the international community, there is unfortunately a
feeling that not much can be done, said Israeli Foreign Ministry spokesman Mark Regev.
Israeli officials are alarmed by what they say is a surge in arms smuggling from Egypt into Gaza following Israel's 2005 withdrawal from the seaside territory and Hamas' subsequent rise to power.

Israeli troops have been battling gunmen in Beit Hanoun for the past three days as part of a fierce campaign to halt militant rocket fire on southern Israel. On Friday, the troops fired toward a crowd of women who streamed into a mosque to serve as human shields for militants holed up inside. One woman was killed and at least 10 were wounded before the militants escaped under the women's cover. Editor's Note: Steven Gutkin is the AP's bureau chief in
Jerusalem.