Blair's road map to redemption?
Former Prime Minister confronts history of failure in new role as Middle East envoy
By Donald Macintyre in Jerusalem 19 July 2007
Tony Blair arrived in Lisbon last night to begin a second career in which he must know that success may prove even more difficult than being the first British Labour prime minister to win three elections in a row. Mr Blair will be anointed as Middle East envoy by the international Quartet, the EU, UN, Russia and the US, knowing the history of the region is littered by the failures of his predecessors as international peacemakers. On the one hand Mr Blair brings considerable assets to the job, including success in Northern Ireland, and a real interest in the Israel-Palestinian conflict, which has no doubt been sharpened by, but did not begin with, the desire to make good for the fiasco of Iraq. On the other hand, it is hard at present to see how he can succeed without coming at some point into collision with both Israel, where he is justly regarded as a friend, and his chief sponsor President Bush.
One sharp question is whether he will at some point talk to Hamas, if only to encourage a rapprochement with its Fatah rivals. On present showing that would incur the wrath of Israel, which has said it will not talk to international figures who engage with the Islamic faction, as well as President George Bush and the Palestinian President, Mahmoud Abbas, who yesterday launched one of his fiercest denunciations yet of Hamas, again proposing fresh elections in the hope of depriving them of a mandate. On the other hand, even Mr Blair's own successor government in Britain, in which his one-time chief policy adviser David Miliband is Foreign Secretary, is among several in Europe tentatively reviewing whether it is really sensible to continue an arguably failed policy of total international isolation of Hamas. No decisions have been taken but the case for change is that more realistic demands, such as an immediate halt to Qassam attacks on Israel and perhaps a pledge not to renew suicide bombing, might produce bankable results. And those advocating conditional engagement, including some prominent Israeli experts, believe it could strengthen the faction's more pragmatic wing at the expense of hardliners who may in time prefer violent opposition, perhaps including suicide bombings, to Israel as well as to Mr Abbas's new emergency administration in Ramallah.
Mr Blair will make a trip to Jerusalem and Ramallah next week before returning for at least a week per month from September, with his likely base being Government House, ironically the headquarters of the old British Mandate but now the headquarters of the UN. And it's then that the real heavy lifting will begin. Even if Mr Blair sees, as Mr Bush made clear that he does, the main task as being to give backing to the government of the new Prime Minister, Salam Fayyad, and Mr Abbas in Ramallah as it seeks to improve relations with Israel by pursuing the path of "moderation", he will come up against a series of problems. Mr Blair must know it is difficult enough helping Mr Abbas build state institutions, including a judiciary and effective security ministry when there is no state. But he also knows it is impossible unless there is a tangible quid pro quo from Israel that goes further than anything offered so far.
That means, for example, improving movement and access, diplomatic speak for dismantling some of the checkpoints and roadblocks which the World Bank has blamed for the collapse in the West Bank's economy (a 10 per cent slump in GDP last year alone). And that means some tough talking with Israel, whose military has been reluctant to ease such closures. And here Mr Blair can hardly ignore Gaza, however much pressure he will be under to ignore Hamas. John Ging, the UN refugee agency director in Gaza, and a group of Gaza businessmen directly appealed to Mr Blair and the Quartet to use his good offices to reopen the Karni crossing whose closure they said had triggered the loss of 68,000 jobs since Hamas's bloody takeover of the Strip in June.
Mr Blair is said to have been shocked by conditions in much of Gaza when he visited it as long ago as 1999 and would be even more shocked now. Similarly, will the man who released IRA and loyalist prisoners in the pursuit of peace at a pace that was often criticised heed the persistent calls of Mr Abbas for Israel to go much further than the 250 mainly Fatah prisoners being released tomorrow? For many years Mr Abbas has been vainly pressing for the release of men gaoled before the Oslo accords for taking part in militant missions on which they were sent by those whom Mr Bush and Israel now praise as Palestinian moderates including Mr Abbas.
These are details, though important ones. But the bigger picture is a diplomatic horizon in which negotiations on a final settlement become a reality. Mr Blair is reportedly happy that Mr Bush indicated on Monday, however vaguely, that he wanted such negotiations to take place. Mr Blair's success will be judged in the end, fairly or not, on how far he can help make that distant prospect a reality.
The international guardians
The International Quartet - consisting of the US, UN, EU, and Russia - was set up as guardians of the 2002 road map, a three-phase process towards a final settlement of the Israel-Palestinian conflict, one that was supposed to take place by 2005.
The road map may be dormant to moribund, despite remaining (apart from the timetable dates) the official policy of Western powers. But the Quartet remains the most active international forum for discussion of the conflict. It is responsible for the policy of consistent isolation of Hamas since it took office after winning the Palestinian legislative elections. While Russia has disagreed with that policy, it has tended, thanks to US domination, to be binding on the UN - a cause of strong frustration for Alvaro de Soto, the previous UN special peace envoy to the Middle East.
Tony Blair, who will attend today's meeting of Quartet foreign ministers, was appointed by it as special envoy. His immediate predecessor was James Wolfensohn, the former head of the World Bank, who was appointed to deal with issues arising out of Israel's withdrawal from Gaza. He became increasingly frustrated with the difficulty, because of Israel's security concerns, of keeping Gaza crossings open, which he regarded as essential to regenerating the Strip's economy, and left last year. He persuaded Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, to broker a deal on opening crossings in November 2005 but it was not largely implemented, because of those same security concerns. Movement and access for Palestinians, one of Mr Wolfensohn's main concerns, will also be in Mr Blair's remit.
Although his appointment had to be approved by the Quartet as a whole, there was some irritation in Moscow and Brussels that they were not more fully consulted by Wash- ington about his appointment.
The plan for peace
1 Dismantle Israeli settlement outposts, such as this one in the northern West Bank, and freeze all settlement-building activity immediately
2 Talk to the Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and heal the factional split between the Palestinians
3 Ease restrictions on Palestinian economy and back Prime Minister Salam Fayyad
4 Make progress by getting the Israeli PM Ehud Olmert to agree to final status talks
5 Use experience of Ireland to urge prisoner releases, including Israeli Gilad Shalit.
