SOLANA UNITY IN ISRAEL GOV GOOD

Solana: Unity govt in Israel good for peace talks By DESMOND BUTLER, Associated Press Writer – Fri Feb 13, 11:37 am ET

AFP WASHINGTON – The European Union's foreign policy chief says a new unity government of Israel's Kadima and Likud political parties would help Mideast peace talks.Kadima (kuh-DEE'-muh) is led by moderate Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni (TSIH-pee LIHV-nee). After final election results Thursday, the party had a slight lead over Benjamin Netanyahu's hawkish Likud.EU official Javier Solana (hah-vee-EHR soh-LAHN-ah) says an Israeli government led by Netanyahu would be more difficult for the peace process.In the most likely scenario for a unity government, Netanyahu would be prime minister while Kadima would hold ministries such as finance, defense or foreign affairs.Solana also said Friday in Washington that there could be a deal within 48 hours between Israel and Hamas on a long-term cease-fire in Gaza. Egypt is mediating the talks.

Israel braces for weeks of political instability by Hazel Ward Hazel Ward – Fri Feb 13, 11:12 am ET

JERUSALEM, Israel (AFP) – Israel on Friday braced for weeks of political uncertainty and a paralysed peace process after final results confirmed Kadima narrowly won the election but indicated Likud was better placed to form a government.The centrist Kadima party of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni won 28 of the 120 parliamentary seats, just one more than Likud, the right-wing party led by former premier Benjamin Netanyahu.But Livni's narrow edge in Tuesday's vote does not guarantee her a shot at becoming prime minister. Most pundits predict Netanyahu will be the one tapped to form a government -- a task which will guarantee him some major headaches.Under Israeli law, the person most likely to secure majority support in parliament -- and not automatically the winner of the vote -- gets the first crack at the top job.

The task is complicated by the fact parties need only two percent of the vote to get a seat in the Knesset.While both Netanyahu and Livni have been speaking with potential coalition partners, there is talk they could form an alliance with the centre-left Labour party of Defence Minister Ehud Barak.The chances of this are still unclear, but the top members of the three parties have a fair number of supporters for the idea of forming a government based on the three center parties, the Maariv newspaper said.This step would defuse the power of ultra-nationalist Avigdor Lieberman, whose far-right Yisrael Beitenu party came in third with 15 seats, giving him the clout of a potential kingmaker.Yisrael Beitenu on Friday passed to both Livni and Netanyahu a list of the party's demands for joining a government headed up by either of them, public radio reported.At the top of the list is the demand that the government would commit to act against terror, primarily by overthrowing Hamas, the Islamist rulers of Gaza, against whom Israel carried out a massive 22-day operation last month, killing more than 1,300 people.It also said the government must pass a law linking citizenship with loyalty to the state of Israel --a move which would see any 'disloyal' Arab Israelis booted out of the country.A narrow right-wing government would include parties opposed to territorial concessions in peace talks and would put Netanyahu at odds with the administration of US President Barack Obama, analysts say.The Haaretz newspaper said a Likud-led coalition with Kadima and Labour would deprive Netanyahu of ideological zeal but might enable him to advance interim agreements with the Palestinians and the Syrians.
MPs from the ultra-Orthodox religious party Shas and the religious ultra-nationalist Habeit Hayehudi party also expressed support for including Kadima after holding talks with Netanyahu on Friday.We told him we would like Kadima to also be part of the next government, headed by Netanyahu, out of our concern for the state of Israel and the government's stability over time, he told Ynet News.Palestinian officials have warned that a government including far right-wing parties would bury the already hobbled US-backed peace process that was relaunched in November 2007 after a seven-year hiatus.But several Kadima members have urged Livni not to enter into a coalition with Netanyahu, also known as Bibi, according to the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot.Such a government will not last even a year. Bibi wants to send us into the opposition and to dismantle Kadima, but we will dismantle him first, the newspaper quoted a Kadima MP as saying. President Shimon Peres is due to hold talks with the parliamentary parties starting next Wednesday to decide whom to task with forming a coalition.His decision is unlikely to come as a surprise. Benjamin Netanyahu will be Israel's next prime minister,Haaretz declared. If the president does indeed ask Netanyahu to form a government, it will be the first time in Israeli history the task does not go to the leader of the party that won the most votes.

Rise in attacks on British Jews Fri Feb 13, 6:45 am ET

LONDON (AFP) – Attacks on Jews in Britain, including violent street assaults, have risen sharply since the Israeli offensive in Gaza, a report said on Friday.The Community Security Trust said 250 anti-Semitic incidents were recorded in the four weeks after fighting began in the Hamas-controlled enclave on December 27.One synagogue in Brondesbury in northwest London was targeted in an arson attack, while hate emails were received by Jews and graffiti threatening jihad against British Jews sprayed.The incidents overshadowed a drop in overall attacks reported in 2008 to 541 from 561 the year before, said CST, a charity which works to safeguard the Jewish community.The Jewish community would have welcomed this decline in incident figures for a second year running, said Mark Gardner from the trust.Sadly, the subsequent outburst of anti-Semitic rage during the Gaza conflict shows the shocking impact upon British Jews of widespread anti-Israel hysteria.Incidents have centred on predominately Jewish areas such as Golders Green and Stamford Hill in north London and parts of Salford and Bury.The figures include 88 violent assaults, including the fatal stabbing of a Jewish man in Manchester at the hands of a mentally-ill attacker.The incident was the first anti-Semitic killing in Britain since the trust began recording incidents in 1984.There were 74 reports of damage and desecration to Jewish property, 28 direct threats and 314 incidents of abusive behaviour, including hate mail and graffiti.A further 347 potential incidents were reported to the trust but were not included in the total because of a lack of evidence.The same period last year saw just 27 incidents in total, according to the trust.During Israel's three-week war on Gaza which included air and ground attacks, 1,330 Palestinians and 13 Israelis were killed.

Peres to start Israel coalition talks next week Fri Feb 13, 4:58 am ET

JERUSALEM (AFP) – Israeli President Shimon Peres will start consultations with political parties next week before he decides who to task with forming a new government, his office said on Friday.The president will start consultations on Wednesday night, said spokeswoman Ayelet Frish. He will meet representatives of Kadima that evening and then Likud.The following days he will meet representatives of the other parties and should conclude his meetings after two or three days.

Kadima, the centrist party of Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, won 28 parliamentary seats in Tuesday's election, one more than former prime minister Benjamin Netanuahu's right-wing Likud.Under Israeli law, the party regarded as the most likely to win majority support in the 120-seat parliament is asked to form a government, and pundits say Peres is certain to give the task to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu ahead in battle for Israel's helm: observers by Yana Dlugy FEB 12,09

JERUSALEM (AFP) – Hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu is running ahead of centrist Tzipi Livni in the fight to take the Israeli helm after an election whose shift to the right raised concerns over the future of peace talks, observers said on Thursday.The chances of Livni forming a government amount to zero, said Avraham Diskin, a political scientist with Hebrew University in Jerusalem, a sentiment echoed in much of the media following Tuesday's election.The final tally after military and overseas votes were counted confirmed on Thursday that Livni's Kadima narrowly emerged as the top party with 28 seats.However, that was far short of the 61 MPs the foreign minister would need in the 120-member parliament to form a governing coalition.Former premier Netanyahu's Likud party was confirmed as having garnered 27 seats, which means he would also have to engage in some political horse-trading if he is to regain his old job.The majority of the remaining seats went to other parties of the right, with the far-right Yisrael Beitenu of Avidgor Lieberman taking 15.The Labour party slipped into fourth place with 13 seats.Both Livni and Netanyahu had claimed victory immediately after the cliffhanger election, leaving Israel potentially facing weeks of political turmoil as they scramble for support from the smaller parties.Public radio on Thursday reported Livni as saying that the official results confirm that the people pronounced in favour of Kadima.But Likud issued a statement accusing Kadima of making use of fictional reality since most of the people want Netanyahu back in power.New kingmaker Lieberman has added a dose of suspense to the political haggling by refusing to say whom he will support.The Palestinians have voiced fears for peace talks after the vote, which came three weeks after a devastating Israeli offensive on Hamas-run Gaza, while Arab media said the ballot was a victory for extremists like Lieberman.It is obvious that Israel will not get a government capable of continuing the negotiations, said Yasser Abed Rabbo, a top aide of Palestinian president Mahmud Abbas.Despite his higher chances of becoming the next prime minister, Netanyahu is walking a political tightrope, analysts say.He is widely believed to want a unity government including Kadima to give him a solid majority in parliament and avoid the risk of a short-term government, which analysts warn would be the case with a strictly right-wing coalition.

A narrow right-wing government would include parties opposed to dismantling settlements and territorial concessions in peace talks and would put Netanyahu at odds with the administration of US President Barack Obama, analysts say.Netanyahu would very much like Kadima to join his government and he would be willing to give a lot for this to happen, wrote Maariv.But Livni has insisted that as the winner of the election, she should lead a unity government. So Netanyahu is planning to approach Kadima via a circuitous route. He believes that if he can convince parties representing 61 MPs to recommend him to the president, Kadima will also join him: Its members are not cut out to sit in the opposition, said the mass-selling Yediot Aharonot. When they join, he will be able to throw out the extreme factions and form the same government that he intended to form from the beginning, it said. But Yaacov Katz, head of the National Union party which represents settlers and will have four seats in parliament, insisted he would not fall for the bluff. If we have the slightest doubt that as a result of our recommendation Bibi will be sitting in the next government with Tzipi Livni and negotiating Annapolis, (the creation of) another Arab country between the sea and the Jordan River, giving away parts of the Land of Israel and dealing improperly with the outposts, the chances we'll recommend him are close to nothing, Katz told the Ynet news website. Another solution would be a rotation in a unity government, a scenario in Israel in 1984 when the two main parties shared the prime minister's post. Netanyahu has ruled out such an option, however. The EU presidency in a statement said the European Union looks forward to working with the new Israeli administration to achieve the most important goal of all: a peaceful resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

After Israel's Election, Palestinians Weigh a New Intifadeh Thu Feb 12, 1:45 pm ET

Phoenix Israel's election and the Gaza conflict have revealed the scale of the challenge facing U.S. President Barack Obama in jump-starting Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts. Israeli voters tacked to the right, and the government that results from Tuesday's poll will be, if anything, even less inclined to conclude a two-state peace agreement with the Palestinian leadership than the current government of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has been. (Of course, the year of talks-about-talks between Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas failed to yield any progress.) Meanwhile, the Gaza war cemented the stature of Hamas as the dominant political force among Palestinians.Needless to say, there is not much optimism in the region over prospects for peace. But the urgency of resolving the conflict may be greater than ever, as the security situation is likely to see a perilous decline in the coming months. Many members of Abbas' Fatah movement, seeing themselves steadily eclipsed by Hamas, are urging a break from their President's strategy of negotiating with the Israelis and a return to confronting the Israeli occupation in the West Bank. (See pictures of Gaza digging out.)Fatah leaders see the Israeli election as confirming what they already knew: there's nothing to be gained by continuing the charade of U.S.-sponsored talks-about-talks with the Israelis. They could not get what they needed from Olmert, and they know that his successors will take even more of a hard line. From the Palestinian perspective, the past eight years of waiting for negotiations with Israel have left Abbas empty-handed, while the latest Gaza conflict has put Hamas in a stronger position than ever in the court of Palestinian public opinion. Despite the violence by Hamas gunmen against Fatah activists in Gaza since the Israeli offensive, many in Fatah view their movement's only hope of re-establishing a leading role in Palestinian politics as joining a unity government with Hamas - and beginning to directly challenge the Israeli occupation in the West Bank. The fact that such a sentiment coincides with Israel's electing a more hawkish government suggests that the Middle East could be in for a long, hot summer.

The Gaza bloodbath prompted President Obama to dispatch former Senator George Mitchell on a listening tour, to signal the new Administration's intent to prioritize peacemaking efforts. But the events of the past six weeks have confirmed that the Israeli-Palestinian peace policy bequeathed by the Bush Administration is dead in the water. If the new Administration is to make good on its promise of progress toward a two-state peace agreement, it will need the sort of thorough policy review currently being undertaken on its Iran policy - and a fresh set of ideas.President Bush confined himself to promoting symbolic gestures of support for a two-state peace agreement - largely in order to win the support of Arab moderates for the U.S.'s role in Iraq, and later for its stance against Iran. A series of photo opportunities, summits and declarations culminated in talks between Olmert and Abbas over what Washington termed a shelf agreement - that is, something that would be concluded and then shelved for a better day when the Palestinian security situation had been resolved to Israel's satisfaction. But none of this substantially altered the realities of the West Bank occupation, leaving Abbas with little to show for his counseling of negotiation over confrontation. Abbas was further weakened and marginalized when reality forced Israel to negotiate truces and prisoner swaps with Hamas, precisely because it was Hamas that was creating the security challenges that Israel needed to contain.An independent Palestinian polling organization found last week that, for the first time, Hamas has greater political support than Fatah across the West Bank and Gaza, and that it would win any election that were held right now. Aides to Abbas are reportedly anxious that an Israel-Hamas deal to secure the release of the captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit in Gaza could involve releasing the Hamas parliamentarians currently in Israeli detention. The Palestinian legislature is currently unable to meet because Israel is holding those lawmakers; if it were able to convene, Hamas would be the majority party.Hamas could, in fact, use its majority to bring down the government of President Abbas, but it's unlikely to do that because its own best interests lie in reconstituting a unity government with Abbas. Reports from Cairo, where Egypt is brokering truce arrangements, suggest that Hamas has accepted the idea that forces loyal to Abbas be placed in control of the border crossings into Gaza to allow the crossings to be reopened. And much of Fatah's rank and file is pressing for a unity government - an option forcefully opposed by the Bush Administration. Fatah is due to elect new leadership next month; while Abbas may survive in a titular leadership position, control of the organization is likely to pass to a younger, more militant generation that is more inclined to make common cause with Hamas.

Of course, the Israelis, whether led by the Likud Party's Benjamin Netanyahu or Kadima's Tzipi Livni, will flatly refuse to talk to a Palestinian government that includes Hamas. But that may not deter Fatah, since the movement has gained little by talking to Israeli governments that are plainly unwilling to meet the Palestinians' bottom lines. Abbas, even in the eyes of many in his movement, gambled everything on the willingness of the U.S. to press the Israelis to deliver a credible two-state peace solution and lost. Now, many of those in Fatah are inclined to bet on a third intifadeh. After all, in the short term at least, the status quo works for the Israelis - as long as there are no missiles raining down on Israel from Gaza. But for the Palestinians, the continued occupation in the West Bank is untenable. And it will not have been lost on Fatah activists that Hamas' more confrontational stance has forced the Israelis, however reluctantly, to the negotiating table, as in the case of the Egypt-brokered Gaza truce negotiations.The benign neglect shown on the Israeli-Palestinian peace effort by the Bush Administration won't be an option for the Obama Administration. But the policy pursued by the Bush Administration in its final year of isolating Hamas while promoting talks-about-talks between Olmert and Abbas is also no longer viable. Israel has tacked to the right, away from moves toward a solution based on the Arab peace plan for which Obama recently expressed support. The terms of that plan call for a two-state solution on the basis of the 1967 borders and sharing Jerusalem. That Palestinian bottom line, however, is explicitly rejected by the bloc of parties now with a majority in Israel's parliament. And the consensus on the Palestinian side is moving toward a Fatah-Hamas unity government. Jump-starting an Israeli-Palestinian peace process, then, or simply preventing a further deterioration of the situation will demand a massive effort and new thinking on the part of the Obama Administration. As far as the Palestinians are concerned, progress would require a readiness by Obama to do something no U.S. Administration since that of President George H.W. Bush has done: throw Washington's weight behind positions at odds with those of the Israeli government. And few Palestinians are betting on Obama to turn up the heat on Israel. Instead, they're more likely to try and do it themselves. - With reporting by Jamil Hamad / Bethlehem.

Israel police to grill Olmert for 14th time Thu Feb 12, 7:57 am ET

JERUSALEM (AFP) – Police will will grill outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on Friday for the 14th time since May as part of an corruption probe, police said.The prime minister will be questioned at his official residence for four hours, police spokesman Micky Rosenfeld told AFP on Thursday.He said police would ask Olmert about the appointment of friends to public office during his term as trade and industry minister between 2003 and 2006.Olmert has been questioned by police 13 times since May on several different alleged cases of corruption, suspicions that forced him to submit his resignation in September.The allegations all date back to before he took office as premier, when he was mayor of Jerusalem and during his term as trade and industry minister.Olmert will remain at the head of a caretaker government until a new government is formed after Tuesday's election.

Israel vote bad omen for Obama peace plans by Lachlan Carmichael FEB 11,09

WASHINGTON (AFP) – Israel's electoral lurch to the right throws cold water on President Barack Obama's hope of keeping the Middle East peace process alive, experts said Wednesday.The White House was careful to avoid commenting on the results of Tuesday's poll, but pledged to work for Middle East peace with whichever government emerges.National Security Council spokesman Michael Hammer said the United States would keep a firm focus on ensuring Israel?s security and advancing the pursuit of peace between Israel and the Palestinians, and Israel and its neighbors.Experts see a US-brokered Middle East peace as key to blunting hardline Iran's rising power following Saddam Hussein's ouster in Iraq, and slowing the tide of Islamist extremism behind the attacks on September 11, 2001.But Americans for Peace Now -- a Washington-based group -- warned that the results bode ill for the peace process.The election results are bad news for the region's security and stability, Ori Nir, spokesman for the organization, said in an email statement.They are very bad news for the Obama administration, which seems determined to push for Israeli-Palestinian and Israeli-Arab peace, he added.

Although it remains unclear whether Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, who has vowed to pursue peace with the Palestinians, or hawkish Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister, there is little doubt about the voters' shift to the right.US experts said that if Livni becomes prime minister, she will have to build a coalition that will unlikely be conducive to peacemaking. Livni began coalition talks Wednesday, meeting with ultra-nationalist Avigdor Lieberman.But Lieberman, whose Yisrael Beitenu has become Israel's third-largest party, has earned a hard-line reputation through vitriolic attacks on Israeli Arabs. Arab analysts called the Israeli vote a victory for extremism.Lieberman, who still planned to meet with Netanyahu, kept his cards close to his chest early Wednesday.Livni's centrist Kadima party won 28 seats in the 120-member parliament, just one ahead of Netanyahu's Likud party.Experts said if Netanyahu gets the job, as experts believe is likely, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others in the Obama administration will recall president Bill Clinton's frustrated efforts at peacemaking in the 1990s when Netanyahu was premier.Netanyahu revels in his reputation as a right-wing warmonger, who has made no secret of his refusal to negotiate a Palestinian state west of the Jordan River, said the Council for the National Interest Foundation.Bill Clinton must be hoping, on behalf of his wife, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, that the next prime minister of Israel is not Benjamin Netanyahu, said the Washington-based non-partisan grassroots organization.He had several bitter experiences in negotiations with him 11 years ago. The Obama team could have similar experiences with the American-born Netanyahu, it argued in a commentary on its website.Peace Now's Ori Nir said: Netanyahu's rejectionist approach pits the future Israeli government against the Obama administration and sends a belligerent message to the Palestinians and to the Arab world.The possible inclusion of Avigdor Lieberman's ultra-nationalist, racist Israel Beitenu Party in the future coalition will further provoke and antagonize the Arab world, he added. The Obama administration will not easily find the Israeli ally that it so much needs to push its new regional policy, he concluded.